Arizona ranked 4^th in net domestic migration in 2024, gaining 55,505 new residents, according to an analysis from the Economic and Business Research Center (EBRC), which focuses on applied economic research and community education for Arizona.

In 2024, over 7 million Americans changed their state of residence, according to the 2024 1-year American Community Survey (ACS). This substantial movement reflects ongoing demographic shifts reshaping the nation’s population distribution.

Florida led the nation in domestic inmigration, receiving 573,876 migrants from other states in 2024, followed by Texas with 556,156, and California with 406,873. However, raw inmigration numbers tell only part of the story. California simultaneously experienced the largest domestic outmigration, with 661,205 residents departing for other states, followed by Florida with 506,246 and Texas with 483,476.

When accounting for both arrivals and departures, net migration trends reveal a different picture. Texas topped the nation with a net gain of 72,680 residents, narrowly edging out Florida’s net gain of 67,630. North Carolina ranked third with 58,610 new residents, while Arizona claimed fourth place with a net gain of 55,505.

Exhibit 1 illustrates the 2024 annual net domestic migration patterns, including inflows, outflows, and net migration ranks, grouped by quantiles. Southern states such as the Carolinas, Florida, Texas, Nevada, and Arizona tended to gain migrants on net, while states like California, New York, and Illinois experienced net losses through domestic migration. These patterns suggest possible correlations with factors such as climate and cost of living, though migration decisions are typically influenced by multiple considerations, including employment opportunities, housing availability, and proximity to family.

Exhibit 1: Annual Domestic Net Migration by State With Inflows, Outflows, and Rankings, Persons Age 1+, 2024 ACS 1-Year State-To-State

According to 2024 ACS 1-Year data, Arizona experienced a net gain of 55,505 residents from domestic migration, ranking the state 4th in that measure, one place higher than in the previous year. In 2024, California sent the most migrants to Arizona with 52,383, followed by Washington with 17,601 and Texas with 10,306. Conversely, Arizona sent the most migrants to California with 28,174, followed by Texas with 13,503 and Colorado with 9,762.

Overall, 30 states sent more migrants to Arizona than they received from it, with California representing the largest net contributor at 24,209 residents. The remaining 19 states and the District of Columbia received more migrants from Arizona than they sent, with Kansas experiencing the largest net outflow, receiving 3,605 more migrants from Arizona than it sent.

Exhibit 2 illustrates the 2024 annual domestic net migration to Arizona, segmented by inflows and outflows, grouped by quantiles. The data reveal that Arizona attracted migrants from colder states like Washington, Minnesota, and Michigan, along with migrants from adjacent states like California and New Mexico. Arizona’s appealing climate, growing economy, and relatively affordable living costs may draw residents from regions with harsher winters and higher expenses. On the other hand, Arizona experienced net outmigration to states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Kansas; similarly warm regions that may offer a lower cost of living, different economic opportunities, or other attractive amenities. While these states share Arizona’s favorable climate, each presents distinct advantages, from Texas’s job market to Florida’s lack of state income tax, that could appeal to Arizona residents seeking new opportunities.

Exhibit 2: Annual Domestic Net Migration to Arizona by State With Inflows and Outflows, Persons Age 1+, 2024 ACS 1-Year State-To-State

Another way to measure a state’s migratory strength is by examining domestic churn, or the ratio of inflows to outflows among domestic migrants. A churn rate above one indicates positive net migration, while a rate below one reflects negative net migration. Exhibit 3 visualizes these domestic churn rates across U.S. states, along with their ranks, grouped in quantiles. Vermont ranks highest in domestic churn, receiving 1.65 migrants for each one sent to another state. Arizona ranks eighth in domestic churn with a rate of 1.31, placing it above high-migration states like Texas and Florida. Arizona also stands out in comparison to California, which ranks last. Nevada ranks even higher at 3rd overall with a churn rate of 1.46.

Vermont, Oklahoma, and Nevada ranked at the top in domestic churn. These states are all adjacent to large outmigration hubs like Texas, California, and New York, possibly suggesting that residents are relocating in search of more affordable housing or different opportunities. Nevada’s proximity to California may contribute to its strong churn performance, as may Arizona’s position as a neighboring alternative.

On the other hand, California, New York, and New Jersey exhibit the lowest churn rates, underscoring their status as dominant outmigration hubs. In these states, high costs of living may outweigh traditional draws, such as job availability or cultural amenities. Cost of living appears to highlight the divide between states with growing populations and those experiencing migratory decline.

Exhibit 3: Annual Domestic Migration Churn Ratio by State With Rankings, Persons Age 1+, 2024 ACS 1-Year State-to-State

The most significant flow of migrants between two states was from California to Texas, with 77,161 individuals making the move. Exhibit 4 highlights the top ten largest state-to-state migration flows; the flow from California to Arizona ranked 4th, gaining a position from last year. The exhibit underscores the substantial outflows from California and New York, which together account for six of the top ten migration corridors.

Interestingly, while Texas and Florida are generally considered inmigration hubs, they occupy the remaining four spots among the top outflows, illustrating that migration between large states flows in both directions. This bidirectional movement suggests that population shifts are more complex than simple one-way exodus narratives; substantial numbers of people are simultaneously moving from California to Texas and from Texas to California, reflecting diverse individual circumstances and preferences rather than a uniform migration pattern.

Exhibit 4: Top Ten Flows, Annual Domestic Migration, Persons Age 1+, 2024 ACS 1-Year State-To-State

Domestic migration has fallen for two consecutive years, from a high of 8,230,953 migrants in 2022 down to 7,550,415 in 2023 and 7,129,487 in 2024. Arizona ranked one place higher in net migration in 2024, swapping positions with South Carolina. California (690,127), Florida (510,925), and New York (481,544) were the largest sources of outmigration in 2023, while Florida (636,933), Texas (611,942), and California (422,075) were the largest destinations.

Exhibit 5 highlights 2023 net state-to-state migration patterns along with inflows and outflows, grouped into quantiles, revealing patterns that are similar to those in Exhibit 1 for 2024. The similarities between these layouts underscore how macroeconomic factors like housing affordability and tax policies continue to shape migration flows across multiple years, suggesting that these trends reflect structural economic conditions rather than temporary fluctuations.

Exhibit 5: Annual Domestic Net Migration by State With Inflows, Outflows, and Rankings, Persons Age 1+, 2023 ACS 1-Year State-To-State

Ultimately, the 2024 ACS state-to-state migration data highlights how housing affordability, economic opportunities, and lifestyle preferences continue to shape population movements across the United States. Arizona’s continued success in attracting residents underscores its appeal as a destination offering both a warm climate and growing economic opportunities. Meanwhile, persistent outmigration from states like California and New York reflects the ongoing challenges those states face with high costs of living, despite their robust job markets and cultural amenities. As these patterns persist year after year, they reveal how economic factors are actively reshaping the cultural and spatial dynamics of American life, influencing not only where people choose to live but also the future character of states and regions nationwide.

– more at azbigmedia.com

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